Syrians Rally
‘[Ariadna: The surprising announcement of the imminent Russian troops withdrawal undoubtedly found many Western “pundits” unprepared and most likely many government leaders as well. For an analysis of its possible meaning and what it may augur for Syria we turn to one of the best military and political analysts well versed in Russian affairs, the Saker.]

Analysis of the Russian military pullout from Syria
[Excerpts]
The first question which needs to be asked is … have the Russians achieved their objective or not? To answer this question, we need to look at what the initial Russian objectives were.
The key issue here is what criteria to use to measure “success”. And that, in turns, begs the question of what the Russians had hoped to achieve with their intervention in the first place. It turns out that Putin clearly and officially spelled out what the purpose of the Russian intervention was. On October 11th, he declared in an interview with Vladimir Soloviev on the TV channel Russia 1:
Our objective is to stabilize the legitimate authority and create conditions for a political compromise
That’s it. He did not say that Russia would single-handedly change the course of the war, much less so win the war. And while some saw the Russian intervention as a total “game changer” which would mark the end of Daesh, I never believed that.

Today’s declaration finally puts to rest the “most anticipated showdown” and other “game changer” theories. At least I hope so 🙂
The Russian intervention is a stunning success, that is indisputable. Vladimir Putin and the Russian military ought to be particularly praised for having set goals fully commensurate with their real capabilities. The Russians went in with a small force and they achieved limited goals: the legitimate authority of the Syrian government has been stabilized and the conditions for a political compromise have been created. That is not an opinion, but the facts on the ground. Not even the worst Putin-haters can dispute that. Today’s declaration shows that the Russians are also sticking to their initial exit strategy and are now confident enough to withdraw their forces. That is nothing short of superb (when is the last time the USA did that?).
A partition of Syria?
By withdrawing their forces the Russians could be giving the signal to the USA that they are free to have their “little victorious war” against Daesh. But this could also be a trap. If you consider the complete failure of the US military in Afghanistan and Iraq, you could wonder why they would suddenly do so much better in Syria, especially considering that besides Daesh they might also come face to face with Iranians and Hezbollah fighters. Furthermore, unlike the Russian Aerospace forces, the Americans will be committing ground forces and these have a much bigger tendency to get bogged down in long counter-insurgency operations. If I was a US military advisor I would caution my commanders against a ground operation in Syria even if the Russians are gone.
Still, what if the Americans are successful? After all, Daesh has taken a bad beating any maybe they can be at least pushed out of Raqqa? Maybe. But if that happens then the question will become whether the Americans will try to achieve a de facto partition of Syria (de jure they cannot, since a UNSC Resolution specifically called for a unitary state).
Partitioning Syria has been, and still is, the longterm Israeli goal. Considering the immense power of the Neocons today (nevermind a Hillary Presidency!) the chances that the US will be trying to partition Syria are immense.
And what if the Americans either fail or don’t even take the bait and stay out of Syria? Does the Russian withdrawal not risk leaving eastern Syria in Daesh hands? Would that not be just another de facto partition of the country? Maybe. Again, this is a real risk.
Finally, if the Turks and their Saudi allies do invade, that would almost certainly result in a partition of Syria as it is doubtful that the Syrian government could take on Daesh and Turkey and the Saudis at the same time. Iran, of course, might, but this would result in a major escalation threatening the entire region.
I think that the risk of a partition of Syria is, alas, very real. However, that being said, I would like to remind everybody that Russia does not have any moral or legal obligation to single-handedly preserve the territorial integrity of Syria. In purely legal terms, this is an obligation of every single country on earth (because of the UN Charter and the recent UNSC Resolution) and in moral terms, this is first and foremost the obligation of the Syrian people themselves. I think that it would be praiseworthy for Russia to do everything she can to prevent a partition of Syria,and I am confident that Russia will do her utmost, but that does not mean that this is a Russian obligation.
It is way too early right now to give a categorical evaluation of the timing and consequences of the Russian withdrawal from Syria. Let us also keep in mind that there is a lot we don’t know.
I am confident that the Russians planned their withdrawal at least as carefully as the planned their intervention and that they have left as many open options as possible. By the way, the big advantage of a unilateral decision is that, unlike one taken as part of an agreement with other parties, it can be unilaterally rescinded too. It took the Russian just days to launch their initial operation even though they had to execute it all in difficult conditions and under the cloak of secrecy. How long would it take them to move back into Syria if needed?
When all is said and done, I simply trust Vladimir Putin. No, no just because I am a Putin fanboy (which, of course, I am!), but because of his record of being right and taking difficult, even risky, decisions which eventually yielded Russia yet another unforeseen success.
Like any good chess player, Putin knows that one of the key factors in any war is time and so far Putin has timed his every move superbly. Yes, there were times in the past when I got really worried about what looked to me as either too much waiting or as dangerous risk-taking, but every single time my fears ended up being unfounded. And yes, I can easily muster up a long list of potentially catastrophic scenarios for Syria, but I think that this would only make sense if Putin had, like Obama, a long and impressive list of failures, disasters, miscalculations and embarrassing defeats on his record. But he does not. In fact, what I see is an amazing list of successes achieved against very difficult odds. And they key to Putin’s success might well be that he is a hardcore realist.
To withdraw the bulk of the Russian military task force in Syria right now is a gutsy and potentially risky move for sure, but I am confident that it is also the right one. But only time will tell if my confidence is warranted or not.

5 thoughts on “Analysis of Russia's Withdrawal from Syria”
  1. I was nearly shocked when the news got out. But afterall I think that Putin knows what and why he does something. So I waited for the ” saker’s” analysis.
    We don’t know what was negotiated behind the curtains. I only hope it was not the partition of Syria.

  2. Hmmm
    There is nothing gutsy about Putin’s withdrawal of forces at these juncture. In fact, one can make a very strong case for the exact opposite. By refusing to stay the course until the Syrian borders with Turkey and Israel have been secured, Putin is leaving the door wide open for Israel, the US and Turkey to use their ISIS mercenary forces to re-escalate the violence to force the partition of Syria into 3 parts. Obviously this is a huge win for Israel and Turkey. These are the 2 countries along with Israel’s proxy the US, in the region which have been breaking international law for the last decade and are directly responsible for the destruction of Syria. Turkey wins because it will soon be able to restart its illegal criminal oil operations stealing Syrian Oil which it sells at below market prices primarily to Israel. Israel will be able to continue its illegal occupation of the Golan Heights and begin its theft of Syria’s massive oil and gas reserves in the Golan. (Dick Chaney’s company has exclusive “rights” granted by Israel to steal these oil and gas reserves in occupied Syria) In essence this is a sad example of a criminal conspiracy to literally and figuratively rape, pillage and burn an entire country. Well done Israel, Turkey and America.
    From a purely military standpoint withdrawal is a clear sign of capitulation because Putin has failed to seal Syria’s borders, failed to force Israel out of the Golan, failed to completely eradicate ISIS and therefore failed to secure any lasting and meaningful victory for Syria and its people. On the other hand, it has been a fantastic public relations campaign. Effectively rejuvenating Russia’s arms industry. It has also reasserted Russia to the forefront of the world stage. In short, Putin, like every other player involved, simply took advantage of the suffering of the Syrian people exploiting the weakness of the Syrian government for Russian national interests and perhaps more than a little personal ego gratification. In the long run the Syrian people have been screwed yet again. And there is little hope that anything will stop Turkey and Israel from continuing their ransacking of the country. As for the plight of the Syrian people; as far as the players Israel, the US, Turkey and Russia are concerned no one gives a damn.

  3. And the world sits back nervously watching to see what horror next befalls the Syrian people.
    We can only trust that Putin knows what he is doing; you know he is not “running” from a job heretofore performed magnificently. There is, as always, more to this than we mere mortals can even imagine.
    I also believe if things get bad again he would return to complete the job.

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