Trump’s support deeper than it looks

POLITICO – Donald Trump’s support among Republican voters appears to be as deep as his hard-core GOP opposition, suggesting that the forces seeking to block his nomination will have to do more than just prevent him from winning enough delegates for a first-ballot victory, according to a POLITICO analysis of voting and polling data.

Trump has won only about 37 percent of the vote in the GOP primaries and caucuses thus far. But that doesn’t mean the entire 63-percent majority of Republicans who voted against him are resolutely opposed.

National polls show that even as Trump’s image has cratered among the broader electorate, more Republicans have a favorable opinion than view him unfavorably. In the states that have already voted, as many Republican primary voters said they would be satisfied if Trump won the nomination as said they wouldn’t, according to exit polls. Majorities in the large states that voted on March 15 said they would be satisfied with a choice between Trump and Hillary Clinton and wouldn’t consider voting for a third-party option.

And as Republicans barrel toward a fight on the convention floor for the party’s presidential nomination, majorities say that Trump should be the nominee — even if he falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch on the first ballot.

Trump enjoys substantial support among Republicans: He’s still the preferred choice of more Republicans nationwide than any other candidate. A CNN/ORC poll last month showed roughly two-thirds of Republicans would feel either “enthusiastic” or “satisfied” if Trump won the nomination. And asked about the possibility of a contested convention, a majority of Republicans tell pollsters, if Trump comes into Cleveland with the most delegates — even if it is just a plurality — he should be the nominee.

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