I24NEWS
The new Middle East poses more than a few challenges and security threats for Israel: fear of a nuclear Iran; the disintegration of sovereign states such as Syria, Libya and Yemen; Islamic State takeover of large parts of Syria and Iraq; terrorist organizations active in Sinai and Gaza; waves of refugees from failing states, and more. Despite the rhetoric of politicians, none of these challenges threaten Israel’s existence. Moreover, regional interests in a post-Arab Spring setting create a series of opportunities for Israel.
A brief historical analogy will help clarify the differences and similarities: Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser was the political winner of the 1956 Suez war with Israel. But Nasserism, the ideological movement that sought a pan-Arab union, failed to bring about the establishment of the United Arab Republic (UAR) – a union between Egypt and Syria in February 1958. In May, civil war erupted in Lebanon and in July the Hashemite monarchical regime fell in Iraq – an event described by David Ben Gurion as the most important in the region since World War II. As a result, the US was quick to send the Marines to Lebanon while Britain sent paratrooper units to Jordan to save the pro-Western regimes from the hands of Nasserism, perceived by the West as supported by the Soviet Union and communism.
Against the backdrop of these ominous events on Israel’s borders, Reuven Shiloah, an adviser to Golda Meir, conceived a brilliant idea: He correctly identified potential allies in the region – Muslim Turkey and Iran, and Christian Ethiopia. What was later dubbed the “Peripheral Alliance” was, in fact, a coalition of countries that cooperated against Nasserism and communism. Cooperation was conducted in the dark, mainly in intelligence and security. In those years, it was creative diplomacy that enabled Israel to leap over the wall of Arab hostility.
Almost 60 years later, Israel has friends and potential allies in the Middle East. Unlike the past, these are not Turkey and Iran, but “moderate” Sunni Arab states guided by the principle of political realism. In other words, there is someone to talk to. Naturally, Egypt and Jordan are at the top of the list, but one can add Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Morocco and possibly other countries.
What is there to talk about? All these countries fear, first and foremost, the nuclearization of Iran. This concern is particularly great in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. Secondly, there is concern about the strengthening of the Shiites, in general, under Iranian leadership. Thirdly, they fear the disintegration of Iraq and Syria and the establishment of an Islamic State caliphate in their stead, not to mention the terrorist threat of al-Qaida, IS, Jabhat al-Nusra – all radical Sunni jihadi organizations.
Thus, the fear of Nasserism has been replaced by the fear of a nuclear Iran and Islamist terrorism. One can call the new regional coalition the “Nuclear Alliance”, for two reasons: in contrast to the alliance of the past with the peripheral countries, it now includes cooperation with countries that are geographically in the Arab nucleus, and because cooperation is primarily focused on the Iranian nuclear issue.
This process is not new. In fact, cooperation with moderate Arab states existed in the past. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman engaged at various times in efforts to forge a regional approach, looking for potential allies in the Gulf, Egypt and Jordan. This was especially clear last summer, during Operation “Protective Edge”. Behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan were opposed to Hamas, Turkey and Qatar.
Israel is not taking advantage of the potential of these regional changes. Its relations with Sunni Arab states, according to some press reports, are secret and sporadic. In many ways, and despite the peace with Egypt and Jordan, Israel is cast in the role of a “mistress”. The road out of this role passes through a political process with the Palestinians.
Abdel Fatah a-Sisi, Egypt’s president, said recently that the continued Israeli-Palestinian conflict fuels terrorist organizations in the Middle East. He also suggested that Israel resume negotiations with the Palestinians on the basis of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. Netanyahu thinks that the initiative is largely irrelevant, but he is wrong.
The “Nuclear Alliance” consists of countries that support the Arab-Saudi initiative and wish for its acceptance by Israel. Does this logic not require Israel to progress? There is no doubt that a solution to the conflict, or making significant progress, will improve prospects for Israel’s acceptance in the Middle East, even if those opposed to its existence will not disappear. Unfortunately, the current composition of the government guarantees that a new message is not on the horizon.
Prof. Eli Podeh teaches in the Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies Department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem and is a board member of Mitvim, the Israeli Institute of Regional Foreign Policies.