Analysis: For Netanyahu, the deal is just the beginning

I24NEWS

Eliminating Iran’s nuclear has been termed his life’s mission: his supporters cite its historic meaning, but critics say he sounds like a broken record. Whatever the case, a nuclear deal between six world powers and Iran is one of the Israeli prime minister’s worst nightmares – and it’s coming true.

Netanyahu dedicated a crucial part of his last six years in power to warning the world about the Iranian bomb. He invoked the unlearned lessons of the rise of Nazi Germany and the Holocaust. He lectured world leaders, in private and public, about the dangers Tehran poses to the world, and succeeded in convincing the Obama Administration to ramp up an impressive set of international sanctions that crippled Iran’s economy.

But then came Rouhani. And Mohammed Javad Zarif. Unlike the previous face that the Islamic Republic showed the world, embodied by former President Ahmedinejad, the new Iranian regime conquered international public opinion with charm diplomacy, twitter diplomacy, and most recently, in Vienna, with balcony diplomacy. Seeking to fulfill their people’s desire for economic relief from sanctions, Rouhani and Zarif negotiated their way to a deal, while Netanyahu – and Israel, were left on the sidelines.

Throughout the 22 months of talks between Iran and the P5+1, Netanyahu relentlessly lobbied world powers to maintain a tough stand against Iran’s celebrated – some would say notorious – Iranian bargaining and negotiating tactics.

However, his mission suffered a severe blow in light of the bad blood between himself and President Barack Obama. Since the 2012 elections campaign, when he openly supported Obama’s republican rival Mitt Romney, Netanyahu’s personal line to the White House has been gradually fraying. Ties dropped to almost rock bottom last March when Netanyahu mounted the podium in Congress to attack the emerging deal.

His critics say he confronted the White House, instead of working with it, but his supporters say that with the Obama Administration’s eagerness to reach a deal, there was no choice but to turn to Congress.

Although Israel kept constant contact with P5+1 members, in the final stretch of the talks, Jerusalem was plagued by uncertainty as Washington preferred to withhold the traditional briefings it had provided to Israeli counterparts in previous rounds of talks.

Netanyahu has nonetheless not given up, far from it. After 22 months of sitting on the sidelines, Netanyahu is preparing to take center stage in order to mount a battle on Capitol Hill. A special Israeli governmental task force, as well as multimillion-dollar campaigns by the pro-Israel lobby in the United States, will be actively advocating against the administration.

Particular focus will be put on pressuring the 13 Democratic senators needed to override a presidential veto, which Obama has pledged to activate if Congress rejects the Iran deal. While most political commentators believe this is a difficult task, maybe impossible, Netanyahu believes that the concessions made to Iran by the US and its allies will sway American public opinion. The campaign slogan will be short and clear: the Obama Administration caved in and made a historic mistake.

Israel’s persistent claim, echoed by many in the political opposition, too is that the six world powers – lead by Washington – failed to maintain a tough negotiating stand to confront the Iranian impressive diplomatic maneuvering. However, in recent days domestic opposition to Netanyahu has emerged, blaming him – and his “personal rift” with Obama, as opposition leader Isaac Herzog said – for the weak influence Israel had at the end of the day on the deal. Netanyahu, of course, rejects rivals’ calls that he assume personal responsibility. From his point of view, the Iranian nuclear issue is far from over. It’s just beginning.