Sources in the Israeli army say the military will have to stay in Lebanon until the Lebanese army can fulfill its commitments under the terms of the cease-fire deal – which include attaining full control of southern Lebanon
Haaretz
The IDF is preparing to remain in southern Lebanon beyond the 60 days outlined in the cease-fire agreement, by which time all its forces are legally obligated to withdraw from the area.
The IDF says this delay will happen if Lebanon’s army does not meet the obligations specified in the agreement and fails to regain full control of southern Lebanon. In such a scenario, sources in the army say, the IDF will have to stay in place until Lebanon’s army can fulfill its commitments.
Thursday marks 30 days since the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect, as part of an agreement brokered by the U.S. and other countries. The IDF says that in the last 30 days, 44 Hezbollah militants who violated the agreement have been killed in IDF strikes. Out of 120 such violations by Hezbollah, the army attacked during 25 of them.
The IDF is currently present in all Lebanese villages near the border fence, and their residents have not yet been allowed to return. In addition to this, the IDF has started building the infrastructure for outposts beyond the border fence, and outposts will be established in villages and towns situated beyond the Israel-Lebanon border.
The army estimates that Hezbollah lost 30 percent of its manpower in the war and 75 percent of the firepower it had on October 6, 2023. The defense establishment assesses that Hezbollah still has hundreds of short-range rockets alongside hundreds of longer-range missiles.
Along with the killing of the organization’s top military and political echelons, the army says that Israel’s achievements in the war are posing both operational and morale problems for Hezbollah. The IDF believes that Hezbollah is undergoing an internal crisis given the criticism voiced by the families of people who were killed or wounded in the war, and by residents of Shi’ite villages located near the border, most of whose homes have been destroyed.
Senior defense establishment figures believe that Hezbollah’s collapse during the war contributed to its greatest achievement – the severe blow to Iran’s influence in the Middle East following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime. This happened without Israel’s defense establishment taking any direct action.
Israel, like all countries in the Middle East, did not foresee the rebels’ rapid takeover of Damascus, achieved almost without any fighting. According to the IDF’s military intelligence services, even rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (al-Golani) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not think that the Syrian army would surrender so quickly, or that Assad would flee the country within a matter of days.
The rebel leader expressed his aspiration to transform Syria – which is currently fragmented into several factions controlling different areas – into a unified sovereign state accepted by the entire population. But the IDF believes that al-Golani will struggle to achieve this goal, and that Syria will remain unstable in the near future. The Israeli defense establishment’s suspicion of the rebel leader prompted the IDF to launch an operation two weeks ago to destroy most of the Syrian army’s capabilities.
The IDF says that the collapse of the territorial contiguity between members of the Shi’ite axis led by Iran has placed Tehran in the greatest crisis it’s experienced since it started to consolidate its hold across the Middle East. Israel’s intelligence services believe that Iran will not remain indifferent to this situation, and will view its nuclear program as a significant tool in restoring its deterrence.
Meanwhile, all defense establishment agencies in Israel believe that if a hostage release deal with Hamas is not achieved soon, a re-evaluation of the army’s missions in the Gaza Strip must be carried out with the political echelon. For now, sources in the defense establishment say that the purpose of operations in Gaza is to place pressure on Hamas to yield to an agreement.
If the two sides do not reach a deal soon, these sources add, further operations in the Gaza Strip must be considered to further pressure Hamas. These sources also said in closed meetings that an examination of operations in the northern Gaza Strip should be carried out to assess whether they are producing the required pressure.
The army understands that the longer the fighting continues, the more the IDF’s values are being eroded, alongside violations of the rules of engagement. IDF brass believe that the army’s values have been compromised during the fighting in Gaza, and meetings on the matter have been held with senior commanders. The army warns that this is a growing issue.