Trump’s newly-acquired leverage, reinforced by the dramatic events of the past week, could jeopardize Israel’s plans in Gaza, especially if a ceasefire or hostage deal begins to take shape.
Jpost
The ceasefire that US President Donald Trump declared to end the Israel-Iran ’12 Day War’ got off to a less-than-auspicious start Tuesday morning, to say the least.
Iran violated the ceasefire by firing a missile six minutes after it went into effect and two more toward northern Israel three-and-a-half hours later.
Israel was preparing to retaliate with significant force when Trump stepped in and said ‘Don’t,’ although doing so in his own immutable style, with CAPITAL LETTERS and an expletive deleted.
He also made a comment that underscored a key point: While Israel and the US may see eye to eye on the Iranian threat – an alignment made abundantly clear to the world through the president’s bombing of Fordow and other Iranian nuclear sites Sunday morning, they do not agree on how to view the enemy.
Speaking angrily to the press Tuesday morning before heading to a NATO meeting in The Hague, where Trump wanted to arrive with a significant achievement under his belt, he said he was upset with both Israel and Iran. ‘I’m really unhappy if Israel goes out this morning because of one rocket that didn’t land right, was shot perhaps by mistake, that didn’t land. I’m not happy about that.’
That mindset – that unless someone is killed, there’s no need to respond – is a pre-October 7 way of thinking that Israel now understands it must shed.
It’s the type of thinking that allowed Hamas to fire rockets for years without Israel dismantling its capabilities much earlier. It’s also the same flawed logic that enabled Hezbollah to amass a monstrous missile arsenal and turn southern Lebanon into a sprawling forward attack base in blatant violation of prior agreements.
Since October 7, Israel has shifted its approach, most visibly on the northern front with Hezbollah.
On November 27, a US-brokered ceasefire went into effect.
Within hours, Hezbollah was testing its limits: trying to move some terrorists back into southern Lebanon, approaching IDF positions, and even firing mortars on Mount Dov five days later – all in defiance of the deal.
The question was how Israel would respond. Would it let these violations slide, or would it internalize the October 7 lesson and act decisively before the threat metastasized?
It chose the latter and has consistently done so since, targeting Hezbollah forces whenever they breach the terms of the agreement. Over 200 Hezbollah operatives have been killed since that ceasefire.
That clarity of doctrine, resetting the rules of the game, is what Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir appeared to have in mind when, following Iran’s missile attack after the ceasefire went into effect, they declared that Israel would respond forcefully against Iranian symbols of government in the heart of Tehran.
Until Trump stepped in…
How did President Trump’s interventions change things?
That intervention underscored an undeniable truth: Even after the dramatic alignment on Fordow, Israel and the US are not in sync across the board.
Israel wanted to send a strong message that it wouldn’t be played for a fool.
The US, looking out for its own interests and assets across the region, was more concerned about avoiding further destabilization, especially as the American president was headed to a NATO meeting.
Trump, in his view, had already accomplished the mission, obliterating the Iranian nuclear threat, and, as former US president Joe Biden might have put it, it was now time to ‘take the win.’
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s instincts were different. The US hit Fordow and flew home. The Iranians launched a symbolic retaliatory strike against US forces in the region to save face and called it a day. But Israel is here to stay.
Israel is in this for the long game, and in the long game, Iran needs to see and feel that the rules have changed – that it no longer enjoys immunity from Israel’s long reach.
This is especially important as the Iranians assess the damage to their nuclear program and need to decide whether to try and reconstruct it.
But once Trump made his view clear, it was equally clear that Israel would comply. Jerusalem is indebted to the president for what he did on Sunday. Some have interpreted his harsh rhetoric toward Israel on Tuesday as a sign that the honeymoon is over.
Going forward, Israel’s indebtedness towards Trump could shape more than just policy on Iran. It may come into play in Gaza as well, where Washington has been pressing Israel to wind down the campaign there.
Trump’s leverage, newly reinforced by the dramatic events of the past week, could tilt Israel’s calculations in Gaza, especially if a ceasefire or hostage deal begins to take shape.
Just as he helped frame the terms of engagement in Iran, actively stepping in to limit Israeli actions, he will now undoubtedly try to do the same in Gaza.
How far that influence extends remains to be seen, but after Tuesday’s developments, it is clear that Israel feels indebted to him and will not be able to easily dismiss his demands.