Russian air strikes in south Syria ‘raise potential for friction’ with Israel

Brig.-Gen. (res.) Abraham Assael, CEO of the Fisher Institute: Closer Russian air activity makes us a little more worried.

JPOST

Russian air strikes in southern Syria represent a rise in the potential for inadvertent friction with Israel, a senior air combat expert told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.

Brig.-Gen. (res.) Abraham Assael , CEO of the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies in Herzliya, spoke a day after international media reports said the Russian Air Force carried out strikes in Syria’s southern Daraa province, near the Jordanian border, for the first time since Moscow directly intervened in the Syrian civil war – the closest Russian jets have come to the Israeli border.

Referring to an incident in September 2014, in which the Israel Air Force’s air defense department shot down a Syrian Sukhoi 24 jet that breached Israeli air space with a Patriot missile, Assel said the shoot-down is “an example of the sensitivity that these things can cause. We do not know what the end result can be [from such incidents].”

Although Israel and Russia have set up a joint working group to create a deconfliction mechanism, to prevent inadvertent fire incidents in the air, sea, and the electromagnetic spectrum, Assael cautioned that human error could undermine such efforts.

“As soon as the potential for friction goes up, even if there is a mechanism in place that is very advanced and up to date, this is not something can prevent human errors. If one side says, ‘don’t come close to this border,’ but someone breaches that, then what happens?” he asked.

Assael, 64, who took up his post as CEO of the Fisher Institute in June, is highly experienced in aviation and defense, and is a former air force base commander. A former squadron commander, he has thousands of flight hours behind him.

He told the Post that the closer proximity of Russian air operations, compared to past strikes in northern Syria in and around Latakia and Hama, “should worry us more.”

While Turkey has to be concerned about Russian breaches of its air space in northern Syria operations, when Russian planes get close to the Golan Heights, flying over Daraa, “the mere fact of this makes us a little more worried at the Fisher Institute, due to the potential of creating an unclear picture, and the potential for accidental friction, the end result of which is unknown.”

In an ideal situation, Assael said, Russia would use its joint deconfliction mechanism with Israel to warn the IAF of impending strikes in Daraa. “But let’s remember that Russia perceives itself as a very influential power in the region. Additionally, things that are agreed upon do not always head down [the chain of command to the operational level]. This increases the potential for friction.”

He noted that details of the joint Russian-Israeli deconfliction mechanism remain unknown.

“We want to hope that there will be no misunderstandings,” Assael concluded.

According to AFP, which cited the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor, Russian warplanes struck on Wednesday in Hara, Tal Antar, Kafr Nasaj and Aqraba areas of northern Daraa.

Daraa is home to a wide variety of rebel groups, including Al-Nusra Front, the report said.