Will Netanyahu personally lobby American lawmakers, making phone calls, private briefings and maybe even flying to Washington to convince them in person?
Ha’aretz
A few days ago, Science and Technology Minister Danny Danon was preparing for an interview with Fox News. Prior to going on air, he contacted the Prime Minister’s Bureau to double-check that he was sticking to Benjamin Netanyahu’s talking points on the Iranian issue. A few minutes later, one of Netanyahu’s aides got back to him with a single request: “Don’t say anything about Congress.”
This anecdote encapsulates the dilemma Netanyahu faces with regard to his effort to block the nuclear deal with Iran via U.S. Congress. The key decision Netanyahu must make is whether to engage in low-profile diplomatic maneuvering or embark on a loud, aggressive campaign that will once again insert Israel deep into America’s domestic political debate.
In another 60 days, at the end of the legally mandated period Congress has to review the nuclear deal, it will hold a vote on whether or not to remove the sanctions the American legislature imposed on Iran. The hope in Netanyahu’s bureau is that if Congress doesn’t lift the sanctions, the Iranians will withdraw from their commitments under the agreement and the whole deal will collapse.
In the first vote on the issue, opponents of the deal are expected to get a majority, but President Barack Obama will veto that decision. To realize his hope of getting that presidential veto overturned, Netanyahu will have to persuade 13 Democratic senators and a few dozen Democratic representatives to vote not just against ending the sanctions, but against the president who leads their party.
Netanyahu hasn’t yet decided on his best course of action for trying to achieve this almost impossible mission. On Sunday, the diplomatic-security cabinet discussed the issue, but no decision was made. In the meantime, he is being relatively cautious. In line with his instructions to Danon, Netanyahu also refrained from uttering the word “Congress” in the interviews he gave to the American media on Sunday, despite being asked about it several times.
On Monday, Netanyahu raised the volume a bit. At the opening of the weekly Likud faction meeting in the Knesset, he said that if Congress doesn’t remove its sanctions – which deny Iran virtually all access, either direct or indirect, to the American economy – this might serve as a lever with which to pressure Tehran to make additional concessions on its nuclear program.
Netanyahu’s representative in Washington, Ambassador Ron Dermer, has also so far kept a relatively low profile. Dermer is holding meetings with Democratic legislators and voicing Israel’s opposition to the agreement, but in contrast to his past behavior, he has thus far refrained from intervening too overtly in the political debate between the Republican and Democratic parties.
Israel’s embassy in Washington is preparing to shift to a more aggeressive strategy and have thus cut short summer vactions for a number of diplomats, though as of now they are still sitting idly. “We are preparing for war, but in the meantime what have yet to hear the call to charge ahead,” an Israel diplomat said.
And this ‘charge’ is exactly the cause for concern for no small amount of officials from the Foreign Ministry and defense establishment who fear a full on confrontation with the U.S. could further expand the schism between Israel and the U.S. Some such voices were heard this Sunday in a meeting with Israel’s deputy foreign minister Tzipi Hotovely.
A senior official present at the meeting said top foreign ministry officials warned Hotovely about such a scenario. “The main message from the professional echelon was that we must tread carefully and thank how far we want to go in congress,” the senior official said. “This is a battle that we know how to enter but not how to leave. Every action we take is likely to have a cost.”
Senior officials at the Foreign Minister are concerned about the ‘day after’ – regardless of whether the attempt to stop the Iran nuclear deal dead in its tracks in Congress is unsuccessful, and even more so if it succeeds, dealing Obama a painful and embarrassing political blow. The fear among officials is that the blowback from the administration could take form in the UN Security Council, with Washington abstaining from vetoing resolutions about the Palestinian issue.
A senior Foreign Ministry officials stressed to Hotovely that along with continuing the efforts against the nuclear deal, it was imperative to shift to a “discourse of compensation” with the Americans, and to discuss their offer for a new defense aid package. “Maybe the day after the vote in Congress, this will no longer be,” the official said. Netanyahu believes that Israeli diplomats are wrong and that in every scenario, the struggle against the nuclear deal trumps the importance of a few more F-35 fighter jets.
The big question that remains to be seen is if in the upcoming weeks Netanyahu will continue his direct campaign against the accord. Will he personally lobby American lawmakers, making phone calls, private briefings and maybe even flying to Washington to convince them in person? Judging by his behavior in the past six years, such a scenario is not so farfetched.
