Opposing Iran Nuclear Deal, Chuck Schumer Rattles Democratic Firewall

The New York Times

WASHINGTON — The decision by Senator Chuck Schumer of New York to oppose the Iran nuclear deal has rattled the Democratic bulwark around the accord, emboldened the deal’s opponents in both parties, and set off a wave of condemnation from liberals for the man who hopes to lead Senate Democrats in the next Congress.

But supporters of the accord said on Friday that Democratic defections would not be enough to bring it down.

To scuttle the deal, opponents have two high hurdles. They will need 60 votes in the Senate for a resolution of disapproval to overcome a filibuster by supporters of the accord. If the opponents get that, the president will veto the resolution. The opponents would then have to secure the votes of two-thirds of the lawmakers in both chambers to override the veto.

“It is less likely than not that Congress is going to override,” said Representative Brad Sherman of California, a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who came out against the nuclear accord on Friday. “That happens almost never, and even less often on foreign policy.”

Mr. Schumer’s voice is powerful, and his politics are wily, but he alone cannot stop the international agreement, which Republican leaders in the House and the Senate have promised to bring to a vote in mid-September.

“It is a decision that many people, including our whip operation in the House, had been watching closely, no question about that,” said Representative David E. Price, Democrat of North Carolina and a member of the House’s informal team whipping up support for the accord. “I wouldn’t underestimate the importance of Chuck Schumer, but he’s not likely to reverse the situation.”

Mr. Schumer, the third-ranking Democrat in the Senate and the likely Democratic leader beginning in 2017, said on Thursday night that he opposed the deal, citing concerns about the inspection regime, provisions to reimpose sanctions if Iran cheats, and Tehran’s freedom after a decade to possibly pursue a nuclear bomb. In quick succession, two other prominent Jewish Democrats, Representative Eliot L. Engel of New York, the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee, and Mr. Sherman announced their opposition.

The office of the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, used Mr. Schumer’s statement to hit back at Mr. Obama, who has accused opponents of the accord of “making common cause” with Iran’s hard-liners. Mr. McConnell’s spokesman, Don Stewart, demanded White House officials retract those words “now that the mud has splashed up onto senior members of their own party.”

Republicans in Congress are almost universally opposed to the deal, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has called a threat to the security of his country, but resistance to the accord among Democrats is concentrated in two heavily Jewish regions, the New York City area and South Florida. In recent weeks, Representative Steve Israel of New York, the most senior Jewish Democrat in the House, and Representative Nita M. Lowey of New York, the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, came out against the deal, as did Representative Albio Sires, who represents the New Jersey suburbs of New York. They joined two other New York Democrats, Kathleen Rice and Grace Meng, in opposition.

Also opposed is Representative Ted Deutch, whose South Florida district abuts Palm Beach and Boca Raton.

But other senior Democrats have come out in favor, including Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat, and Representative Adam B. Schiff of California, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. Representative Sander M. Levin, Democrat of Michigan and one of the most senior Jewish members of Congress, also supports the deal.

On Friday, Senators Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont running for the Democratic presidential nomination, and Tammy Baldwin, Democrat of Wisconsin, declared their support of the deal, the 15th and 16th Senate Democrats to do so. The president needs 34 to sustain a veto.

Mr. Schiff said in an interview that New York sensitivities were the result of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and a visceral fear that loosening sanctions on Iran could result in financing for terrorism. “There was no one in their constituency who had not been directly impacted by the attacks of 9/11,” Mr. Schiff said. “It had a real impact in the New York Jewish community.”

But Mr. Schiff, a Southern Californian who is Jewish, said that, on balance, the deal was the best way to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Although opponents still have an uphill climb for the 67 Senate votes they would need to override a veto, Mr. Schumer’s decision puts within reach the 60 votes needed to get a resolution of disapproval to the president.

“There was tremendous optimism immediately after the deal was announced that we would never get to the veto phase,” said Representative Lloyd Doggett, Democrat of Texas, who is helping to round up votes in support of Mr. Obama’s position. Mr. Schumer’s decision “makes that much more difficult,” he added.

Within hours of his announcement, Mr. Schumer came under sharp criticism from liberal groups like MoveOn.org, which threatened a campaign donation boycott. The liberal organization Credo Action said the senator had gone “from Wall Street Chuck to War Monger Chuck.”

The White House press secretary, Josh Earnest, on Friday did not rule out the possibility that Mr. Schumer’s stance could cost him support when he pursues his party’s top Senate post.

“I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if there are individual members of the Senate Democratic caucus that will consider the voting record of those who say they would like to lead the caucus,” Mr. Earnest said.

But the senator was being lauded by New York constituents, his office said.

It was not clear how hard Mr. Schumer intended to press colleagues to move against the deal, and many Democrats suggested that he had stated his opposition only after the deal appeared safe.

Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House minority leader, has assembled a team to protect the deal. Representative Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, a leader of that effort, said the latest meeting to plot strategy drew about 15 Democrats volunteering for “whip” duty.

“With or without his vote, I feel optimistic about having enough votes to sustain a veto,” Ms. Schakowsky said.