The failure of the Arab Spring

ed note–the readers of this website will recall the manner by which in its earliest infancy we tried sounding the alarm that the entire ‘Arab Spring’ business was a fraud that was indeed the product of CIA, Mossad, MI6 and a half dozen other intelligence agencies, and that the entire exercise was–borrowing and adapting  from Clausewitz–‘war by other means’, whereby the emotions and disaffections on the part of those peoples living in the autocracies of the Middle East would serve as the primary fuel for regime change which its authors intended would make its way eventually to places such as Libya, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, etc.

For having the temerity to take this stand, we were charged with all the usual business–traitors to ‘duh mooooovmnt,’ secret ‘ZYnist agents,’ etc, etc, etc, for merely pointing out certain uncomfortable facts directly related to the case–in particular all those various CIA-associated groups such as National Endowment for Democracy, Freedom House, etc– that were and had been operating heavily in those countries for many years and that therefore, the notion that all of this unrest sprung up from out of nowhere without these adjuncts to CIA et al having the foresight necessary in seeing ahead of time what was coming was somewhere between unlikely and outright impossible.

And yet, despite all the charges and accusations, here we are, with a Middle East that has been (further) ripped to shreds by CIA/Mossad created groups such as ISIS that were the immediate result of the ‘Arab Spring’, a disaster that would never have gotten as much as 2 feet off the ground had the peoples in those regions dialed down on their emotionalism and dialed up on their skepticism long enough to see the fact that they were being played…

We point this out not as the latest installment of ‘we told you so’ but rather in the interests of addressing a theme that pops up often in the comments section of this website where we are told–relevant to certain hot button topics–to just ‘leave it alone’. Whether it is Trump, Sandy Hook, Torah Judaism, White Nationalism, the ‘Zionism isn’t Judaism’ nonsense and about a half dozen other topics discussed here (that for various reasons a certain pedigree of readership still does not understand or appreciate) we are insistent upon making sure that even if we are one of a very small number of voices saying it–or even the ONLY one–that the narrative here remains consistent.

And golly-gee-willagers, in the aftermath of what is now taking place with Alex Jones being sued into oblivion by the various surviving families of the Sandy Hook massacre and with articles such as this pointing out what a failure the Arab Spring was, we can’t help but wonder what kinds of other interesting news items will be appearing in the near future that also featured as regular fare on this website related to Trump, impeachment, a Middle East peace deal or the latest bombshell where it is revealed that some notorious White Nationalist individual has been on the payroll of ADL or some other Zionist group for years.

thehill.com

More than eight years ago, millions of Arab citizens tuned to Al-Jazeera as it delivered round-the-clock coverage of the “Arab Spring” revolutions. For the first time, it seemed, people were taking charge of their own destiny, with no demagogues in command and no foreign interference.

The images of relentless demonstrations and entrenched autocrats being ejected one by one were gripping, as was the bewildering speed of events. The questions of who would replace them or what kind of political system would be put in place didn’t seem pertinent at the moment.

Eight years later, it is tragic to see how little has been gained despite all the efforts and sacrifices for dignity and justice. Except for Tunisia, Arab autocrats from Morocco to Bahrain adjusted their seats, rolled back the few concessions they were forced to make and resorted to business as usual.

The failure of the Arab Spring is not just a story about frustrated aspirations or authoritarian survival. The deeply troubling story here is the region’s weak support for modern democracy beyond the promise of majority rule and social justice. Only weeks after the overthrow of the dictators, the creative artistic energy, progressive principles and forward-looking cultural ethos that animated young men and women in Tunis, Cairo and Sanaa were already forgotten.

Almost in all countries, the political process culminated in power jockeying among the same political contenders: kings with medieval divine rights, new military-backed strongmen, senior state technocrats and profoundly retrograde Islamist leaders.

In hindsight, the democratic ideals of the Arab Spring never stood a chance. Apart from a narrow circle of activists, demands for civil rights, individual liberties and fundamental freedoms didn’t have a popular base, and none of the major political actors felt compelled to embrace them.

The Arab people’s focus on the social benefits and majoritarian component of democracy is not surprising. Much of the region’s social ills — such as poverty, inequality and high unemployment — have to do with the concentration of power and wealth in the hands of tight knit elites whose decisions serve their narrow interests at the expense of the majority.

The most passionate lament of the Arab Spring was nepotism, and the primary demand of protestors was the decoupling of political and economic power. However, such a minimalist understanding of democracy can be a trap. One of its pernicious consequences is what my colleague, Stephen King, and I call “the lure of authoritarianism.”

This simply means that the instrumentalist use of democracy to solve social problems can easily give way to authoritarian adoration. It leads to the election of autocrats who promise meager material goods wrapped in conservative social and cultural clichés. In a context, where there is no free press, independent judiciary or robust civil society, this outcome is devastating for fundamental democratic rights.

Our surveys of the political evolution of five North African nations after the Arab Spring find the lure of authoritarianism to be driven by three main considerations.

The first is the quest for security and stability. The collapse of state authorities and ensuing civil wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen have given wind to the autocrats’ old claim that only they can preserve law and order in the region.

A second important finding is that the region’s economic and demographic dynamics will continue to elevate the satisfaction of immediate social needs over individual freedoms or minority rights.

Finally, the strong grip of conservative social and religious norms on society frustrates any serious attempt to find a progressive path. This problem is most notorious in debates on gender relations, religious issues and freedom of expression.

The exception to these three broad patterns is Tunisia, where the authoritarian temptation is for the moment held in check by a more robust secular civil society.

The Trump administration’s policy of embracing Middle East autocrats is obviously not helpful. The president’s hard-headed support of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, despite strong evidence connecting him to the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, emboldens dictators. And Secretary of State Pompeo’s tribute this month to Egypt’s new dictator, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, flattens the hope of democracy advocates.

“Governments that protect (democratic) rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure” warned President Obama in his 2009 Cairo address. That was less than two years before the popular uprisings shook the Arab world. These words carry greater meaning and urgency today.